Senior figures in Nigeria’s opposition African Democratic Congress (ADC) have declared that President Bola Tinubu will face a fierce electoral battle in 2027, as deepening internal divisions threaten to undercut the party’s own ambitions.
At a fractious national convention in Abuja on Tuesday, the embattled national chairman, David Mark, alongside former Osun governor Rauf Aregbesola and other party leaders, delivered a blistering critique of the government’s handling of insecurity and the economy, arguing that Nigerians were enduring unprecedented hardship.
The gathering, themed “So That Nigeria May Work”, drew more than 3,000 delegates and a roll call of opposition heavyweights, including former vice-president Atiku Abubakar, former Anambra governor Peter Obi, and former Rivers governor Rotimi Amaechi. Together, they painted a picture of a country in decline, with worsening poverty and deteriorating security conditions.
Yet even as the party sought to project unity, a rival faction led by Nafiu Bala dismissed the convention as illegitimate, vowing to hold a separate gathering after an anticipated supreme court ruling. The dispute underscores a prolonged leadership crisis that has splintered the ADC into competing blocs and triggered a tangle of litigation.
‘No coronation in 2027’
Mark, formally endorsed by delegates as leader of a new national working committee, insisted the ADC remained a viable political force despite legal and institutional pressures.
“You have not weakened us; you have welded us together,” he told supporters, framing the party as a growing coalition for disaffected Nigerians. He argued that a new generation was demanding accountability and that the ADC’s appeal lay in its alignment with those aspirations rather than in personalities.
Aregbesola, once an ally of Tinubu, went further, suggesting the president should step down over what he described as policy failures and worsening living conditions. He warned against any assumption of an easy re-election.
“There will be no coronation in 2027,” he said. “There will be no Kabiyesi in the Presidential Villa.”
His remarks reflected a broader opposition narrative that the administration is centralising power and undermining democratic norms.
Opposition broadside
Atiku accused the government of presiding over systemic decline across key sectors, from the economy to education and healthcare, and vowed that the opposition would mount a serious challenge.
“We are going to win,” he said, while also warning that electoral authorities would be held accountable over allegations of bias.
Obi struck a more cautionary tone, urging national unity in the face of deepening divisions. “The country is collapsing,” he said, warning that worsening indices could accelerate decline if left unchecked.
Amaechi, meanwhile, delivered a characteristically blunt critique, accusing the government of deploying state institutions against citizens and prioritising wealth over governance.
Party in three parts
Behind the rhetoric, however, the ADC remains deeply fractured. The roots of the crisis stretch back to disputes over the tenure of former chairman Ralph Nwosu, which expired in 2022 but triggered competing succession claims.
Since then, the party has splintered into at least three factions: one aligned with Mark’s coalition, another linked to Nafiu Gombe, and a third backed by the party’s 2023 presidential candidate Dumebi Kachikwu, which has installed its own caretaker leadership under Kingsley Ogga.
The crisis has been compounded by intervention from the Independent National Electoral Commission, which on 1 April delisted several key figures, including Mark and Aregbesola, citing a court order to maintain the status quo pending final determination of the dispute.
Courts take centre stage
Nigeria’s courts are now central to the party’s future. The supreme court has fixed 22 April to hear Mark’s appeal challenging earlier rulings, while a federal high court in Abuja has adjourned related proceedings indefinitely pending that decision.
In parallel, another court has ordered all parties to maintain the status quo, warning against actions that could prejudice ongoing litigation.
The overlapping cases – spanning jurisdictional disputes, leadership claims and procedural challenges – highlight the extent to which the ADC’s internal conflict has become judicialised.
Uncertain path to 2027
For all the defiance on display in Abuja, the party’s readiness for the 2027 elections remains in question. Legal uncertainty, competing conventions and rival leadership structures risk diluting its ability to present a coherent alternative to the ruling party.
Still, Mark struck an optimistic note, framing the moment as both a challenge and an opportunity. The ADC, he said, was not merely seeking power but attempting to restore faith in politics itself.
Whether that ambition can survive the party’s internal fractures may prove decisive—not only for the ADC, but for the shape of Nigeria’s opposition heading into a pivotal election cycle.
