The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2024 to 3.3 per cent, up from the previous projection of three per cent. The revision was announced in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook for April, released during the ongoing 2024 Spring Meetings of the World Bank and IMF in Washington, United States.
The updated forecast represents a 0.3 percentage point increase from the previous prediction in January 2024. However, the IMF has adopted a more conservative stance for 2025, reducing Nigeria’s economic growth forecast to 3.0 per cent, a slight decrease from the earlier projection of 3.1 per cent.
In the broader Sub-Saharan Africa region, the IMF has maintained its 3.8 per cent economic growth forecast for 2024 but has revised the 2025 forecast downward to 4.0 per cent from the previously projected 4.1 per cent.
Globally, the economic outlook has received a modest boost, with the IMF raising its growth forecast for 2024 to 3.2 per cent, up from the 3.1 per cent projected in the January 2024 World Economic Outlook. The forecast for 2025 remains unchanged at 3.2 per cent.
The IMF noted, “Global growth, estimated at 3.2 per cent in 2023, is projected to continue at the same pace in 2024 and 2025.” However, it highlighted factors such as restrictive monetary policies, withdrawal of fiscal support, and low productivity growth as reasons for the forecast being below the historical annual average.
The report also discussed expected trends in various economies, indicating a slight rise in growth for advanced economies and stable growth for emerging market and developing economies. Specifically for sub-Saharan Africa, the IMF projects an increase in growth from an estimated 3.4 per cent in 2023 to 3.8 per cent in 2024 and 4.0 per cent in 2025.
The positive outlook for sub-Saharan Africa is attributed to the diminishing impact of previous weather shocks and gradual improvements in supply issues. Despite some negative adjustments, such as a contraction in the oil sector in Angola, positive revisions for Nigeria have contributed to maintaining the regional growth forecast consistent with previous updates.
