Nigeria’s headline inflation rate dipped to 22.22% in June 2025, down from 22.97% the previous month, according to new data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). While the headline figures point to a slowing annual pace of price increases, a closer look reveals that inflation is still accelerating on a month-to-month basis — and biting hard into household incomes.
The NBS report, released on Wednesday, highlights that the year-on-year inflation rate has dropped sharply by nearly 12 percentage points from June 2024, when it stood at a staggering 34.19%. This apparent relief, however, is partly due to a recent rebasing of the Consumer Price Index, with 2024 now serving as the base year — a statistical recalibration that softens annual comparisons.
On a month-to-month basis, inflation rose to 1.68% in June from 1.53% in May, underscoring persistent price pressures in key sectors such as food, transport and housing. The CPI itself climbed from 121.4 to 123.4 over the same period.
“The Consumer Price Index rose to 123.4 in June 2025, reflecting a 2.0-point increase from the preceding month,” the NBS noted in its release. “On a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 11.97 per cent lower than the rate recorded in June 2024.”
Food Prices Still Rising at the Checkout
Food inflation — typically the most immediate concern for ordinary Nigerians—showed a sharp year-on-year drop to 21.97% in June from 40.87% a year earlier, again largely due to the base effect. But on a monthly basis, the story is different: food inflation surged to 3.25% in June, up from 2.19% in May, driven by price hikes in everyday staples including tomatoes, peppers, dried peas, crayfish, meat, and plantain flour.
The average annual rate of food inflation over the past 12 months stood at 28.28%, a 7-percentage-point decline from the 35.3% recorded over the previous period.
Core inflation—which strips out volatile items such as food and energy—also declined year-on-year to 22.76% from 27.4% in June 2024. Yet month-on-month, it nearly doubled to 2.46%, up from 1.10% in May, reflecting fresh pressures in non-food essentials.
Rural-Urban Divide Widens
Urban and rural inflation trends diverged notably. Urban inflation slowed to 22.72% year-on-year in June from 36.55% in the same month last year. On a monthly basis, however, it rose to 2.11% from 1.40%. In rural areas, inflation eased to 20.85% year-on-year (down from 32.09%) but grew at a slower monthly pace of 0.63% in June, down from 1.83% in May.
Stark Contrasts Across States
At the state level, Borno recorded the highest year-on-year inflation at 31.63%, trailed by Abuja (26.79%) and Benue (25.91%). Zamfara saw the slowest increase at 9.90%, followed by Yobe (13.51%) and Sokoto (15.78%).
Month-on-month, price increases were steepest in Ekiti (5.39%), Delta (5.15%), and Lagos (5.13%), while Zamfara, Niger and Plateau bucked the trend with declines of 6.89%, 5.35%, and 4.01%, respectively.
Food inflation remained most severe in Borno (47.40%), Ebonyi (30.62%), and Bayelsa (28.64%), while Katsina, Adamawa, and Sokoto recorded the mildest increases.
The fastest monthly food inflation was in Enugu (11.90%), Kwara (9.97%), and Rivers (9.88%), with Borno, Sokoto, and Bayelsa again seeing notable declines.
Inflation Eases, But Not in Nigerian Kitchens
The largest contributors to overall inflation remained unchanged: food and non-alcoholic beverages, restaurants, transport, housing, energy, education, health, and clothing.
Although the moderation in year-on-year inflation may hint at a degree of macroeconomic stability or the statistical benefits of a new base year, rising monthly figures paint a more troubling picture. For many Nigerians, the cost of living continues to climb, even if the official data says inflation is “slowing.”
As with many of Nigeria’s economic indicators, the headlines may offer a semblance of improvement—but the markets, and the kitchens, tell another story.
