Fresh divisions have opened within Nigeria’s opposition ranks ahead of the 2027 presidential election after leading political parties and pressure groups publicly rejected claims by Atiku Abubakar that no southern opposition candidate could realistically defeat President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
The backlash, involving parties including the All Progressives Grand Alliance, Labour Party, Young Progressives Party, Social Democratic Party, New Nigeria People’s Party and the Nigeria Democratic Congress, has exposed growing tensions over zoning, coalition-building and the direction of the opposition’s challenge to the ruling APC.
The dispute was triggered by comments issued on Sunday by Atiku’s media aide, Olusola Sanni, who warned opposition parties against fielding southern presidential candidates in 2027.
The statement argued that Nigerian political history offered no example of a southern opposition candidate defeating a sitting southern president.
“How does a Southern opposition candidate realistically unseat a sitting Southern president?” the statement asked. “No incumbent president has ever been defeated by an opposition challenger from the same geopolitical bloc.”
Atiku’s camp also contended that by 2027 the South would have spent roughly 18 years in power since the return to civilian rule in 1999, compared with about 10 years for the North, making another southern presidency difficult to justify on equity grounds.
But the remarks drew swift resistance from across the opposition spectrum, with critics accusing the former vice-president of deepening regional tensions and prioritising personal ambition over political consensus.
The APGA national publicity secretary, Ejimofor Opara, insisted that the South should be allowed to complete what many regard as its constitutional and political turn in office.
“It is the turn of the South, and we strongly believe that every right-thinking northerner should support it,” he said, arguing that Tinubu remained electorally vulnerable despite Atiku’s calculations.
Opara also suggested that the disagreement had exposed early fractures within the emerging opposition alliance.
“The moment people begin to put personal ambition ahead of collective interest, the coalition naturally weakens,” he said.
The Young Progressives Party dismissed the argument entirely, saying competence and leadership capacity should outweigh regional identity.
Its spokesperson, Wale Egbeola-Martins, said there was “nothing cast in stone” preventing Tinubu from losing to either a northern or southern challenger.
“Nigeria has had presidents from both the North and the South since the beginning of the Fourth Republic, yet the country’s challenges have continued to worsen,” he said. “This suggests that where a president comes from is far less important than whether he possesses the competence, vision and capacity to deliver transformational leadership.”
The Social Democratic Party, which has already produced Adewole Adebayo as its presidential candidate, also insisted that a southern opposition figure could defeat Tinubu.
Its spokesman, Rufus Aiyenigba, said worsening economic hardship and insecurity would shape the election more decisively than geography.
“People are hungry. Inflation is rising. Businesses are collapsing, and insecurity remains a major concern,” he said. “These are the issues that will shape the next election, not merely where a candidate comes from.”
The chairman of the New Nigeria People’s Party, Yusuf Bala Usman, acknowledged the existence of an informal North-South power-sharing understanding but argued that the final decision rested with voters.
“Whether you are from the North or South, it doesn’t matter,” he said, while maintaining that the South was widely expected to complete an eight-year cycle.
The criticism grew sharper from the Kwankwasiyya Movement, whose spokesman, Habibu Muhammed, described Atiku’s position as “insulting” and accused him of inflaming regional divisions.
“It is like saying there is no qualified person other than yourself in all the states in the South,” Muhammed said.
He argued that rotational power-sharing had become embedded in Nigeria’s political consciousness and remained essential for national cohesion.
“What we need now is a ticket that will bring unity to this country, calm nerves and make people generally feel at home,” he added.
The Labour Party also rejected Atiku’s electoral calculations, arguing that the 2023 presidential election had already disproved the theory that a southern opposition candidate could not prevail against another southerner.
Its national publicity secretary, Ken Asogwa, said the argument ignored the complexity of Nigeria’s voting patterns and overemphasised regional identity.
“With due respect, His Excellency Atiku Abubakar’s argument is pedestrian,” Asogwa said, noting that the combined votes of Atiku and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso in 2023 still fell short of Tinubu’s total.
The debate has intensified amid broader coalition talks involving opposition leaders including Peter Obi and Kwankwaso, both of whom recently aligned with the Nigeria Democratic Congress.
The Obidient Movement claimed the pair had abandoned the ADC after discovering alleged plans to frustrate their presidential ambitions through litigation.
Its national coordinator, Yunusa Tanko, alleged that the ADC had become a “booby-trap” intended to block Obi and Kwankwaso from securing presidential tickets.
“But God made it possible for us to see the danger ahead,” he said, insisting that the new alliance remained united despite speculation of internal cracks.
Even within the Peoples Democratic Party, however, officials sought to distance themselves from Atiku’s framing while reaffirming support for zoning as a stabilising political principle.
The PDP interim national working committee spokesman, Ini Ememobong, said zoning had historically helped reduce political tension and promote inclusion.
“If you conduct a survey of Nigerians’ sentiments today, the popular view is that the South should complete its current four-year cycle,” he said.
Political observers say the increasingly bitter dispute over zoning may prove decisive in shaping opposition alliances ahead of 2027, with tensions between regional balancing, electability and personal ambition threatening to complicate efforts to build a united front against the APC.
For now, the sharp reactions trailing Atiku’s comments suggest that the battle over power rotation and the identity of the opposition’s presidential standard-bearer is already emerging as one of the defining political contests before the election campaign has formally begun.
