Terrorists displaced by intensified military operations in north-west Nigeria are increasingly moving into the south-east and south-south through a network of forests and riverine corridors, according to security and intelligence sources, raising fresh concerns about the evolving geography of the country’s insurgency.
The Punch quotes multiple security officials, saying insurgents driven out of strongholds in Zamfara and Sokoto states have been exploiting interconnected forest routes running through Niger, Kogi and Anambra states to evade military pressure and establish new operational footholds further south.
A senior security source said some of the militants had already reached parts of Imo and Abia states, while others were believed to have dispersed into areas of the south-west.
“These terrorists started moving from Zamfara; they went through the bushes and forests and might have ended up in other states, including Imo and Abia. Some are even in Ogun State,” the source said.
The official added that groups linked to Ansaru and other extremist factions had been significantly weakened but remained active across parts of Niger and Kwara states.
Security experts describe Kogi as a critical transit and coordination hub within a vast network of forests connecting northern and southern Nigeria. A retired army general said insurgents relied heavily on cattle routes and remote bush paths, as well as the Niger River corridor through eastern Kogi, to move undetected into Anambra and beyond.
“The connecting links for these terrorists are the forests that network the North with the South-East and South-West,” he said, identifying Kogi and Kwara as key convergence points.
According to the retired officer, the movement of insurgents is facilitated by long-established transhumance routes used by pastoralists, although he stressed that herders themselves are often victims of bandit attacks and cattle rustling.
A serving officer of the Department of State Services said intelligence assessments had identified a broad corridor linking forests in Kogi with reserves in Ekiti and Ondo states, creating routes into Edo and other southern states.
“They have a command centre in Kogi where they train and strategise,” the officer claimed, adding that the network extended through remote forest belts and border communities.
The concerns have been heightened by recent security alerts in Edo State. Earlier this week, authorities ordered the closure of three secondary schools in Akoko-Edo Local Government Area after intelligence reports warned of a planned kidnapping operation targeting students.
State officials said the decision followed credible security advisories regarding threats to schools, teachers and surrounding communities.
Intelligence sources also suggested that some insurgent groups had altered their operational strategy, shifting from kidnapping primarily for ransom to large-scale abductions aimed at securing the release of detained commanders through prisoner exchanges.
One official alleged that the same network behind the recent abduction of schoolchildren and teachers in Oyo State was also linked to kidnappings in Niger, Ekiti and Kwara states.
Federal authorities, however, are said to be resisting pressure to negotiate with terrorist groups, with security agencies reportedly receiving international support in ongoing rescue operations.
Despite concerns about infiltration, security officials in the south-east insist the region remains hostile territory for northern insurgent groups.
A military officer attached to Anambra State’s security outfit, Udo Ga-Achi, said there was no evidence of established bandit camps in the area and argued that local armed groups would make it difficult for external insurgents to gain a foothold.
“To the best of my knowledge, there are no bandit camps in the area,” the officer said, adding that security forces had inflicted significant losses on criminal elements operating in the region.
The officer also argued that the activities of the proscribed Indigenous People of Biafra and its armed wing, the Eastern Security Network, would act as a deterrent to outside terrorist groups attempting to establish bases in south-eastern forests.
Anambra’s security outfit, Agunechemba, acknowledged encountering armed criminal groups in forests, farmlands and riverine communities across the state but said it had no intelligence indicating a coordinated migration of terrorists from the north.
Its spokesperson, Nweke Nweke, said the outfit had discovered arms caches during operations and had intensified surveillance through checkpoints, intelligence gathering and joint patrols with federal security agencies.
“We are maintaining vigilance across the state against any unforeseen development,” he said.
Authorities in Imo and Abia states similarly dismissed reports of terrorist camps within their territories.
The Imo State Police Command said there was no evidence of organised terrorism or banditry in the state beyond the activities of IPOB and the ESN, while insisting that sustained raids had reduced criminal activity in forested areas.
Police spokesperson Henry Okoye described claims of terrorist infiltration as exaggerated, though he acknowledged that some kidnapping suspects arrested in the state had been northern migrants posing as herders.
In neighbouring Abia, officials said security agencies had developed strategies to prevent any infiltration and would continue to safeguard lives and property.
“Abia State has successfully been warding off the encroachment of terrorists and will leave no stone unturned in ensuring the protection of lives and property,” said MacDonald Uba, security adviser to Governor Alex Otti.
While officials differ on the scale of the threat, the accounts underscore growing concerns among security agencies that military pressure in one part of the country may be driving insurgent groups to seek refuge and new opportunities elsewhere, exposing the challenge of containing a conflict that increasingly transcends regional boundaries.
