A fresh political storm erupted on Thursday after the Presidency and the ruling All Progressives Congress dismissed former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar’s emergence as the African Democratic Congress (ADC) presidential candidate as inconsequential, describing the opposition coalition behind him as a gathering driven more by grievances than ideas.
Atiku secured 1,846,370 votes in the ADC primary to defeat former minister of transportation Rotimi Amaechi and economist Mohammed Hayatu-Deen, who polled 504,117 and 177,120 votes respectively.
The exercise, however, was immediately overshadowed by controversy after Amaechi and Hayatu-Deen rejected the conduct of the voting process across the 36 states and the federal capital territory, alleging widespread irregularities and boycotting the collation and declaration of results.
Reacting to the outcome, the Presidency insisted Atiku’s candidacy posed no serious electoral threat to President Bola Tinubu’s 2027 re-election ambitions, arguing that Nigerians would ultimately judge the government on performance rather than opposition realignments.
The development also reignited long-running debates over Nigeria’s unofficial North-South power rotation arrangement, with opposition parties warning that Atiku’s renewed presidential ambition risked inflaming regional tensions in the country’s fragile political structure.
Though not formally enshrined in the constitution, zoning has remained a powerful force in Nigerian politics since the return to civilian rule in 1999, often shaping party calculations and elite consensus over presidential succession.
Atiku’s emergence as the ADC flag bearer has reopened old fractures within an opposition bloc already struggling with internal division, competing ambitions and a lack of ideological coherence ahead of the next election cycle.
The Presidency was among the first to respond, portraying Atiku’s candidacy as merely the latest chapter in what it described as the former vice-president’s decades-long pursuit of the presidency.
Temitope Ajayi, senior special assistant to the president on media and publicity, told media that the coalition backing Atiku lacked any coherent national vision and was instead united by resentment among political actors excluded from power.
“Atiku is welcomed. It is a familiar terrain for him. He is a perennial contestant in our presidential race. He has been chasing this presidential ambition since 1992,” Ajayi said.
“He has been a candidate in three elections: AC in 2007, PDP in 2019 and 2023, and he was an aspirant in 2015, 2011, and 1992. By way of that, we can say he is a veteran of the presidential contest. But he doesn’t pose any threat to President Tinubu’s election.”
Ajayi argued that the opposition coalition had already begun to unravel before the primary, citing the absence of key figures such as Peter Obi and former Kano governor Rabiu Kwankwaso as evidence of its weakening structure.
“They were hoping to build a coalition around aggrieved politicians,” he said. “Their coalition was not built around any higher purpose goal, any manifesto about national development, but around the egos of aggrieved individuals who feel they should be at the centre of every government.”
He also dismissed comparisons between Atiku’s political trajectory and former president Muhammadu Buhari’s successful 2015 campaign, insisting the opposition no longer possessed the unity that enabled Buhari’s victory.
“Buhari won the election on a unified opposition platform where everybody subsumed their personal ambitions and structures and interests under the collective. But that is not happening here,” he said.
Ajayi further criticised Peter Obi’s political rise, claiming the former Anambra governor had never independently secured victory in a competitive party primary.
“That one has never won a party primary but has always been coronated candidate or had the tickets donated to him,” he said.
Atiku, 78, remains one of Nigeria’s most enduring political figures, having contested presidential elections and party primaries across multiple political platforms since the early 1990s.
Despite repeated defeats, including losses to Buhari in 2019 and Tinubu in 2023, he has maintained a central role in opposition politics, frequently presenting himself as a coalition-builder capable of uniting anti-APC forces.
His latest emergence under the ADC platform, however, has intensified arguments over zoning and political equity, particularly among parties insisting that power should remain in the south after Tinubu’s first term.
The Social Democratic Party reaffirmed its commitment to rotating its presidential ticket between the north and south, describing the principle as essential to national cohesion.
The party’s national publicity secretary, Rufus Aiyenigba, said its zoning arrangement reflected a commitment to fairness and inclusivity.
“That is why the party has institutionalised in its constitution the concept of rotating the presidential ticket between the South and North of the country,” he said.
The Labour Party adopted a sharper tone, describing Atiku’s decision to contest again as politically insensitive.
In a statement signed by its national publicity secretary, Ken Asogwa, the party argued that the former vice-president’s ambition ignored the delicate balance underpinning Nigeria’s federal arrangement.
“While the Constitution undoubtedly grants him the right to contest, morality and political sensitivity ought to guide such ambitions in a fragile federation like ours,” Asogwa said.
The party also questioned the credibility of the ADC primary after allegations of irregularities, while positioning itself as the strongest opposition force ahead of 2027.
The APC joined the criticism, portraying Atiku’s emergence as evidence of political inconsistency and desperation.
Bala Ibrahim, the party’s director of publicity, said Nigerians would prioritise Tinubu’s “Renewed Hope Agenda” over what he described as emotional opposition realignments.
“Atiku’s emergence shows inconsistency and failure of integrity,” Ibrahim said. “Looking at the sentiment and emotion in the country, everyone will agree that Nigerians will not allow power to shift from the South to the North.”
In a swift rebuttal, Atiku’s senior special assistant on public communication, Phrank Shaibu, accused the Presidency of betraying its own anxiety by responding so aggressively to the ADC primary.
“The truth is that Nigerians themselves — not presidential spokesmen — will determine in 2027 who poses a threat to whom,” Shaibu said.
He argued that the opposition movement was fuelled not by elite grievances but by public frustration over worsening living conditions.
“Nigerians are angry because families can no longer afford food, businesses are collapsing, farmers cannot safely access their lands, and kidnapping has become a national industry under this administration’s watch,” he said.
Shaibu also confirmed that Atiku had visited Amaechi at his Abuja residence less than 24 hours after the contentious primary, describing the meeting as a “brotherly and statesman-like” effort aimed at unifying the party.
According to him, the two men discussed the economy, insecurity and the broader future of the country, while Atiku stressed the need for collective action to “rescue Nigeria and rebuild hope for Nigerians”.
Political observers described the meeting as an early reconciliation effort by Atiku to consolidate support within the ADC ahead of what is expected to become a fiercely contested 2027 presidential race.
