Nigeria has embarked on a crucial process of rebasing its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Consumer Prices Index (CPI) estimates, according to the Statistician-General of the Federation and Chief Executive of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Prince Semiu Adeniran. This exercise, last conducted in 2014, is aimed at providing a more accurate reflection of the country’s current economic landscape.
Speaking at the opening of a sensitisation workshop in Abuja on Thursday, Adeniran underscored the importance of updated and accurate data in a rapidly changing and interconnected world. The workshop, part of the GDP and CPI Rebasing Exercise, aims to engage stakeholders, solicit feedback, and ensure that the results meet the needs of all users, providing a clearer picture of Nigeria’s economy.
“Accurate and timely data are essential in today’s world,” Adeniran stated. “Our commitment to using all available resources to address inflation and to reform the foreign exchange market has already borne fruit, enhancing transparency and improving market liquidity.”
The NBS has faced challenges with delays and irregularities in major statistical activities, compounded by the informal structure of the economy, which complicates data collection. Adeniran emphasised the need for inclusivity, collaboration, and partnership throughout the rebasing process to ensure comprehensive and reliable outcomes.
Former Chief Executive of National Planning, Ode Ojowu, highlighted the significant structural changes in Nigeria’s economy since the last rebasing. He noted the rapid growth of technology and digital sectors, such as fintech and e-commerce, the expansion of agricultural value chains, the rise of renewable energy sources, and the burgeoning entertainment and creative industries. Ojowu stressed that the rebasing would capture these sectoral shifts, providing a more accurate economic portrait.
“Since 2014, we have seen substantial growth in various sectors, including technology, agriculture, and entertainment,” Ojowu remarked. “The rebasing will reflect these changes and offer a more precise measure of our economic performance.”
Ojowu commended the NBS for its efforts to provide reliable data to support decision-making but warned that the rebasing would impact current macroeconomic indicators. He pointed out that past rebasing exercises had led to significant adjustments in financial metrics, such as private sector credit to GDP and fiscal deficit ratios. The forthcoming rebasing is expected to similarly adjust these indicators, potentially influencing government policy.
“For instance, in 2013, financial indicators were lower post-rebasing,” Ojowu explained. “Private sector credit to GDP dropped significantly, and the fiscal deficit ratio also halved. With the anticipated rise in GDP size from the current rebasing, we expect further adjustments in these ratios.”
Ojowu cautioned that while a larger GDP might reduce the fiscal deficit and debt-to-GDP ratios, it could tempt the government to increase spending and borrowing. He stressed the need for careful consideration of these metrics to ensure fiscal stability and sustainable economic growth.
“As we celebrate a potentially larger GDP, we must scrutinise its composition and its ability to create employment, enhance incomes, and generate revenue,” Ojowu advised. “It is essential to maintain a balance to avoid compromising the fiscal health of the state.”
The rebasing exercise is a critical step in providing accurate data that reflects Nigeria’s evolving economy, helping to inform policy and drive sustainable growth. As the process unfolds, stakeholders and policymakers will need to navigate the implications carefully to ensure the country’s economic stability and development.
