PwC Nigeria says recent gains in macroeconomic stability are beginning to reshape the operating environment for businesses and investors, even as deep structural challenges continue to weigh on the economy.
In its Economic Outlook 2026, the firm argues that monetary and foreign exchange reforms implemented over the past year have delivered a measure of stability, with inflation easing from recent highs, exchange-rate conditions becoming more predictable, and external reserves strengthening. The result, PwC says, is a more navigable landscape for companies making investment, cost and funding decisions as Nigeria heads into 2026.
The report suggests that this improved stability is already influencing corporate strategy, particularly around regulatory and tax planning, capital allocation and digital priorities. For business leaders, the shift has brought clearer price and funding signals, even if broader risks remain unresolved.
Sam Abu, PwC Nigeria’s country senior partner, said the focus must now move beyond stabilisation. “Nigeria has achieved improved macroeconomic stability over the past year,” he said. “The question now is how that stability is translated into sustainable economic growth, and how businesses position for 2026. For companies, this stability provides a more predictable operating environment for planning, investment and growth decisions.”
PwC identifies seven forces likely to shape Nigeria’s economic performance in the year ahead, cutting across global and domestic pressures. These include the effectiveness of monetary policy, fiscal sustainability and the execution of reforms, global economic and geopolitical uncertainty, domestic security and social strains, uneven growth across sectors, constraints on consumer affordability, and the expanding role of the digital economy and artificial intelligence.
According to Olusegun Zaccheaus, partner and chief economist at PwC Nigeria, the global backdrop remains challenging. World economic growth is projected at about 3.1% in 2026, while merchandise trade growth is expected to slow to roughly 0.5%. “This keeps oil prices, capital flows and access to foreign inflows as key channels influencing Nigeria’s growth and foreign exchange liquidity,” he said.
At home, Zaccheaus noted, tighter and more effective monetary policy has helped reduce volatility and improve price discovery. But fiscal pressures, persistent insecurity and weak household purchasing power continue to shape outcomes across sectors. Growth, he warned, is likely to remain concentrated in services and a narrow set of capital-intensive industries, increasing the importance of disciplined capital allocation.
Looking ahead, PwC projects real GDP growth of around 4.3% in 2026, with inflation moderating gradually and the naira remaining broadly stable. Even so, constrained public finances are expected to persist, reinforcing the need for balance-sheet discipline across both the public and private sectors.
Against this backdrop, the firm urges business leaders to make selective investment bets in sectors and regions with stronger fundamentals, build resilience through scenario planning, adapt cost structures to withstand shocks, accelerate digital transformation and responsible AI adoption, and strengthen regulatory and tax compliance as reforms shift from policy design to on-the-ground execution.
