Two opposition parties in Nigeria have raised doubts over the authenticity of new voter registration figures released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), which show the South-West accounting for more than two-thirds of pre-registrations nationwide.
The African Democratic Congress (ADC) and Labour Party (LP) accused INEC of releasing implausible data, pointing in particular to Osun State, where nearly 400,000 new registrants were recorded in a single week. The ADC called for a forensic audit of the figures, describing the numbers as a “statistical miracle”.
According to INEC, Osun State recorded 393,269 pre-registrations between 18 and 25 August, more than the state managed across four years in the run-up to the 2023 elections. In total, the South-West accounted for 848,359 pre-registrations, representing 67% of the national total. By contrast, the South-East recorded just 1,998.
“The anomalies are glaring,” the ADC said in a statement signed by its acting publicity secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi. “Osun has supposedly registered more people in seven days than it managed in four years. This is not just unusual, it is statistically implausible.”
The Labour Party echoed the concerns, warning Nigerians to be vigilant. “We are tired of INEC’s shenanigans,” said LP spokesman Tony Akeni. “Even their claims of having registered prison inmates is an open fraud. They are just giving us advance notice that the forthcoming elections will be as fraudulent or more fraudulent than the past.”
But other parties dismissed the alarm. The All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) accused the ADC of being “alarmist”, insisting INEC’s credibility was not in doubt. “Figures don’t lie,” said Ejimofor Opara, APGA’s national publicity secretary. “If INEC says the South-West has more new voters, then that is what the data shows.”
Reactions in Osun were more cautious. The state’s ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) said the surge could reflect enthusiasm ahead of local elections but admitted the numbers were “alarming”. The opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) said only INEC could explain the figures.
In response, INEC flatly rejected suggestions of manipulation. Its spokesperson, Rotimi Oyekanmi, said the data mirrored earlier registration patterns. He noted that during the 2021 continuous voter registration, Osun also led the country in new registrations, with over 700,000 recorded by April 2022.
“Nothing can be further from the truth,” Oyekanmi said. “If the party were proactive enough, a simple search of past records would have revealed these facts.”
He added that all online registrants must still complete the process in person, where biometric data is captured to guard against double registration. INEC would continue to publish weekly updates, he said, stressing that only “real persons, who meet constitutional requirements, will be registered”.
Nigeria’s electoral roll has expanded significantly in recent years. After the 2019 registration exercise, more than 14 million new voters were added, while a further 9.4 million were added ahead of the 2023 elections, bringing the total electorate to more than 93 million.
The commission has urged political parties to avoid “sheer conjecture” and rely on verifiable data. But with the opposition already voicing fears of manipulation, the row underscores deep-seated mistrust in Nigeria’s electoral process — a tension that could shape the run-up to the 2027 polls.
