The Presidency has pushed back against a new World Bank report estimating that 139 million Nigerians—more than 60 per cent of the population—are living in poverty, describing the figure as “unrealistic” and detached from the country’s current economic realities.
President Bola Tinubu’s Special Adviser on Media and Public Communication, Sunday Dare, in a post on X on Wednesday, said the figure “must be properly contextualised” within the limits of global poverty measurement models, arguing that the bank’s analysis does not reflect conditions on the ground.
“While Nigeria values its partnership with the World Bank and appreciates its contributions to policy analysis, the figure quoted must be properly contextualised. It is unrealistic,” Dare wrote.
According to the presidency, the World Bank’s estimate was derived from the global poverty line of $2.15 per person per day—a measure set in 2017 using purchasing power parity (PPP)—and should not be mistaken for an actual headcount of Nigerians living in poverty.
“When converted to nominal terms, the $2.15 benchmark equals about ₦100,000 per month at current exchange rates, which is well above Nigeria’s new minimum wage of ₦70,000,” the statement said. “Clearly, the measure is an analytical construct, not a direct reflection of local income realities.”
The presidency further argued that the PPP-based methodology draws on outdated consumption data—Nigeria’s last major survey was conducted in 2018–19—and fails to capture the informal and subsistence economies that support millions of households.
It described the World Bank’s poverty estimate as “a modelled global projection, not an empirical representation of living conditions in 2025,” adding that “what truly matters is the trajectory, and Nigeria’s is now one of recovery and inclusive reform.”
Dare pointed to several welfare and reform initiatives designed to cushion the impact of recent economic adjustments, including the expansion of conditional cash transfers to 15 million households, disbursement of over ₦297 billion to poor and vulnerable families, and the rollout of the Renewed Hope Ward Development Programme, which targets all 8,809 electoral wards with community-level micro-infrastructure and social services.
Other interventions cited include the strengthening of the National Social Investment Programmes (such as N-Power and GEEP micro-loans), food security initiatives involving subsidised grains and fertiliser distribution, and the establishment of the Renewed Hope Infrastructure Fund to finance roads, energy, and housing.
The presidency maintained that the Tinubu administration is addressing Nigeria’s poverty challenge by tackling “the structural distortions that have constrained productivity and inclusive growth for decades.”
It defended reforms such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange-rate unification as “painful but necessary choices” to fix the root causes of poverty. “Even the World Bank itself has acknowledged that these reforms are already restoring macroeconomic stability and growth momentum,” the statement said.
While acknowledging that stabilisation alone cannot substitute for tangible improvements in welfare, the presidency said its medium-term priority was to ensure that “macroeconomic stability leads to affordable food, quality jobs, and reliable infrastructure.”
According to Dare, new investments in agriculture, manufacturing, and power—including gas-to-power projects and vocational skills hubs—are expected to generate jobs and reduce living costs. “Nigerians should begin to feel more visible improvements in food prices, income, and purchasing power as these programmes mature,” he said.
The government added that it is consolidating all welfare initiatives under a single, data-driven framework to ensure transparency and reach. “No vulnerable community will be left behind,” the statement said.
Concluding, the presidency reaffirmed Tinubu’s commitment to building “a resilient and inclusive economy” where growth translates directly into improved living standards. “Nigeria rejects exaggerated statistical interpretations detached from local realities,” Dare said. “The government remains focused on empowering households, expanding opportunity, and laying the foundation for a fairer, more prosperous nation.”
Earlier on Wednesday, the World Bank’s Country Director for Nigeria, Mathew Verghis, presented the findings of the Nigeria Development Update report, titled From Policy to People: Bringing the Reform Gains Home.
Verghis praised Nigeria’s recent macroeconomic reforms—particularly in the exchange rate and fuel subsidy regimes—calling them “foundational” and “comparable to the bold reforms that transformed India’s economy in the early 1990s.”
He noted that growth, revenues, and reserves are improving, while inflation is beginning to ease, describing these as “big achievements many countries would envy.”
However, Verghis warned that the stabilisation gains had yet to improve living standards. “Despite these reforms, many households are still struggling with eroded purchasing power,” he said. “In 2025, we estimate that 139 million Nigerians live in poverty—up from 129 million in April 2025 and 87 million in 2023.”
The World Bank said the deepening hardship underscores the need for Nigeria to translate its macroeconomic reforms into tangible improvements for citizens—a goal both the government and its critics agree remains urgent.
