By Abdulrauf Aliyu
This piece (by Bayo Onanuga) reads like a victory lap written mid-race on a treadmill that only government communication departments believe is moving forward. It is eloquent, confident, and unfortunately, repeatedly disconnected from empirical reality.
Let us begin with your central thesis: that Nigeria has been “saved” by bold reforms and is now on an irreversible path of prosperity. That is a strong claim. Strong claims require stronger evidence, not selective statistics wrapped in political optimism.
Yes, subsidy removal was necessary. Economists across ideologies agreed Nigeria was spending over ₦4–₦5 trillion annually on an inefficient petrol subsidy system. But removing distortion is not the same as creating welfare. It is like fixing a leaking roof by removing the house entirely and celebrating reduced maintenance costs. The result matters. And the result, measured in lived reality, is that transport costs multiplied, food inflation crossed 40% at peak (NBS, 2024), and real wages collapsed faster than policy memos could be written.
You celebrate exchange rate unification. Fine. But the naira moved from roughly ₦460/$ (official window in 2023) to peaks above ₦1,500/$ in 2024 before partial stabilisation. That is not “controlled adjustment” in the way your narrative suggests; it is a currency devaluation shock transmitted directly into import prices, school fees, medicines, and fuel costs. In economics, we call this pass-through inflation. In Nigeria, we call it “market days have become negotiation arenas for survival.”
You praise stock market growth from ₦30 trillion to ₦160 trillion. Impressive headline. But let us apply Systems 2 thinking, as you should have. Over 90% of Nigerian households do not meaningfully participate in equities. So this is a wealth signal for the top sliver of the economy, not a welfare signal for 200 million citizens. Rising capitalization in a consumption-constrained economy is like applauding a luxury yacht while most citizens are bailing water from canoes.
You claim states are now flush with cash and development is “visible everywhere.” Yet 2024 fiscal reports still show subnational wage pressures, arrears, and rising debt stock across multiple states. Increased FAAC allocations did rise significantly post-subsidy, yes, but so did recurrent expenditure and inflation-adjusted costs. Many states now spend more on salaries than capital projects despite “higher allocations.” That is not transformation. That is inflation eating fiscal expansion like termites in a wooden cabinet.
You cite governors praising federal reforms as proof of success. That is not evidence. That is political incentive alignment. Nigerian governors praising the centre is not data; it is survival behaviour in a federal patronage ecosystem. If praise were GDP, Nigeria would be G7.
You argue critics rely on “no empirical proof” regarding hardship. That is factually weak. World Bank estimates place over 129 million Nigerians in multidimensional poverty. UNICEF continues to flag rising child malnutrition rates. Food inflation remains structurally above income growth. These are not sentiments. They are quantified distress indicators.
On infrastructure, yes, roads and rail are expanding. But infrastructure ROI is not measured in ribbon-cutting density. It is measured in productivity absorption, logistics cost reduction, and security of usage. What is the value of highways if insecurity still imposes informal taxation on movement? Nigeria recorded thousands of insecurity-related deaths annually according to multiple conflict trackers (including ACLED datasets). A road without safety is a concrete liability corridor.
On power sector reforms, we have heard this story since privatization. Installed capacity remains constrained, grid collapses persist, and firms still self-generate a majority of electricity. The World Bank estimates Nigeria loses billions annually in productivity due to power deficits. A reform that does not materially change kilowatt access at household level is still an unfinished reform.
On education financing (NELFUND), expanded credit is positive. But credit in a stagnant job market risks converting youth aspiration into structured debt exposure. Loans do not replace employment creation. Economies grow through productive absorption, not subsidised waiting rooms.
Finally, your framing of Nigeria as “saved” by one administration is analytically unserious. Nigeria is a structurally constrained economy shaped by decades of oil dependency, institutional fragility, demographic pressure, and elite capture. No single administration “takes bullets” alone; governance outcomes are cumulative liabilities and cumulative responsibilities.
The uncomfortable truth is this: macroeconomic stabilization without broad-based welfare transmission produces statistical recovery and social exhaustion simultaneously. That is Nigeria’s current paradox.
Or put differently, if prosperity were truly universal, it would not require this much explanation.
Policy advice is simple: less mythology, more measurement. Less applause economics, more distributional accounting. Less celebration of aggregates, more interrogation of households.
Because history will not remember who wrote the loudest press release.
It will remember who ate, who couldn’t, and why.
This reply was lifted directly and verbatim from the comments section of Bayo Onanuga’s Facebook page
