President Bola Tinubu’s ambitious plan to quadruple the size of Nigeria’s economy to $1tn by 2030 has been described as unrealistic by investment research and advisory firm Afrinvest, which pointed to persistent inflation, faltering oil production, and chronic power sector shortfalls as major obstacles.
Speaking at the BRICS summit in Brazil, Tinubu predicted Nigeria’s economy would grow at 7% annually by 2027, underpinned by reforms introduced since mid-2023, including the removal of fuel subsidies and liberalisation of the foreign exchange market.
But Afrinvest, in its latest report, argued that despite recent GDP rebasing and stronger revenue mobilisation, the conditions necessary to meet such targets remain absent. Nigeria’s GDP stood at $251bn at the end of 2024—about half its pre-reform level—as sharp currency depreciation offset gains from nominal growth.
The National Bureau of Statistics reported growth of just 3.13% in the first quarter of 2025, while forecasts from the IMF and World Bank place expansion at between 3.4% and 3.8% in the medium term, far below the pace needed to hit Tinubu’s projection.
Although Afrinvest acknowledged improvements in ICT, financial services, and transport, it said inflation had eroded household incomes, electricity supply remained crippled by liquidity crises, and oil output continued to lag due to theft, vandalism and underinvestment.
“To achieve a $1 trillion economy by 2030, Nigeria would require sustained nominal growth of at least 40% annually in the near term or a significant strengthening of the naira to around ₦500 to the dollar from 2027,” the firm said.
Afrinvest urged the government to accelerate reforms, including ramping up oil production to 2m barrels per day, enforcing cost-reflective tariffs with targeted subsidies, stabilising the exchange rate, overhauling taxation, and strengthening food security through agricultural interventions.
