By Abdulrauf Aliyu
Two days ago, Donald Trump was sworn in as the 47th president of the United States, embarking on a second term filled with significant geopolitical and economic implications for the world. Africa, and more specifically Nigeria, stands at the intersection of this evolving global landscape. While Trump’s inaugural speech lacked direct references to Africa, his future actions will reflect the realpolitik mindset that has guided much of his foreign policy. For Nigeria, understanding the implications of Trump’s strategies—rooted in pragmatic, often self-interested goals—requires an analysis of his likely approach to global power dynamics and economic systems.
Trump’s worldview, driven by a realist perspective, is one where global politics is primarily a competition for power, wealth, and influence. His past administration was defined by a significant shift toward nationalism, focusing on bolstering American interests, often at the expense of multilateral cooperation. In his second term, he will likely continue this trend, framing U.S. foreign policy around securing American economic and geopolitical advantage. Nigeria, with its vast resources and strategic position in Africa, is one of the nations that will find itself in the periphery of Trump’s policies—at times receiving attention, but only insofar as it aligns with U.S. interests.
The focus on national interest will mean that African nations, including Nigeria, will need to adapt to a U.S. foreign policy that is transactional and self-serving. Trump’s rhetoric and policies—emphasizing energy independence, global trade, and security—point to a future in which the U.S. engages with countries based on immediate and tangible benefits rather than long-term partnerships. Nigeria, a major oil producer, is caught between this shift and the changing dynamics of global energy markets. With Trump’s commitment to energy dominance and America’s growing shale production, Nigeria will likely see a reduced strategic reliance on its oil exports. The U.S. may no longer view Nigerian oil as a critical part of its energy supply, especially if Trump’s policy continues to promote energy self-sufficiency and an overall reduction in global oil dependence.
However, while Trump’s policies could lead to diminished reliance on Nigerian oil, it’s important to note that his economic strategy will still involve leveraging geoeconomics as a tool for securing U.S. influence abroad. Trump has already demonstrated his preference for using economic sanctions, tariffs, and trade deals as instruments of foreign policy, a trend that will likely continue in his second term. In this context, Nigeria could feel the pressure of American trade policies that prioritize U.S. interests, potentially leading to a reduction in trade or investment flows between the two countries. For Nigeria, the immediate challenge will be to diversify its economy beyond oil and to seek new trade relationships, particularly with emerging powers like China and India, to buffer against potential shifts in U.S. policy.
In the realm of security, Trump’s approach is one of strategic autonomy, preferring to avoid deep military entanglements abroad unless they serve direct U.S. interests. His reluctance to engage in nation-building and long-term military commitments could limit U.S. involvement in Africa, despite the region’s growing security challenges. For Nigeria, this poses both a challenge and an opportunity. While the U.S. may continue counterterrorism cooperation with Nigeria, especially regarding the fight against groups like Boko Haram, the lack of deeper U.S. military engagement means that Nigeria will need to invest more heavily in its own security infrastructure. The fight against terrorism in Nigeria and the broader Sahel region will increasingly be a responsibility of regional powers and local actors, with the U.S. providing support only when it directly serves its strategic goals.
The growing rivalry between the U.S. and China will also have profound implications for Nigeria. China’s investment footprint in Africa has been expanding rapidly, with the Belt and Road Initiative serving as a significant vehicle for economic cooperation. In contrast, Trump’s vision for U.S.-Africa relations is more transactional and less committed to long-term infrastructural development or soft power initiatives. Nigeria will find itself strategically positioned between these two competing powers, forced to navigate the complexities of aligning with both sides without compromising its own interests. Trump’s preference for unilateralism means that Nigeria will need to make choices based on its own national strategy, understanding that U.S. support will be contingent on aligning with American geopolitical and economic objectives.
In the broader global context, the future of multilateralism and international institutions under Trump’s second term is uncertain. His preference for bilateral agreements over multilateral diplomacy suggests that Nigeria may find itself needing to engage directly with the U.S. on a case-by-case basis, rather than relying on frameworks like the United Nations or the World Trade Organization. For Nigeria, this means recalibrating its foreign policy to ensure that it can secure favorable terms in bilateral negotiations, particularly regarding trade, security, and investment.
One of the central challenges for Nigeria in the coming years will be maintaining its strategic autonomy while navigating a world in which global power dynamics are in flux. Trump’s foreign policy will likely continue to be defined by a calculated balancing act between competing global interests. Nigeria must position itself as an independent regional power, enhancing its standing within Africa while avoiding overreliance on external powers like the U.S. or China. The country’s efforts to expand regional influence, particularly through leadership in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the African Union, will become increasingly important.
The global order in which Nigeria operates will likely be one defined by multipolarity, where no single power holds unquestioned dominance. The U.S., China, and other rising powers will all have a say in global affairs, and Nigeria must remain nimble, adjusting its grand strategy to the shifting tides of geopolitics. The future of Nigeria’s economy, security, and global standing will depend on its ability to adapt and diversify, taking advantage of new opportunities while protecting its national interests.
In this new world order, Nigeria’s resilience will depend on its ability to combine internal strength with external pragmatism. With Trump’s second term offering little in the way of African development initiatives, Nigeria must chart a course that aligns with its own aspirations for economic growth, regional leadership, and global influence. As America prioritizes its national interests, Nigeria must ensure that it remains a strong and independent actor in the global system, ready to meet the challenges of an increasingly complex world
